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Projection of Future PM2.5 Concentration in Response of Future Emission Scenarios and Climate Changes in Tehran

Yavari, Farshad | 2022

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 55151 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technolog
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Arhami, Mohammad; Safaie, Ammar
  7. Abstract:
  8. The problem of PM pollutants has become one of the main environmental concerns of Tehran city due to the growth of city population and industrialization. As a consequence of this problem there is an increasing trend in the number of unhealthy days in Tehran in terms of air quality in recent years. Solving this problem needs strict regulations to limit the amount of pollutants released from vehicles, industries and power plants. To help this cause, this study investigates the effect of emissions and climate change under RCP scenarios on future PM2.5 concentration in Tehran by using WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ modeling system. The result of simulation of climate conditions under RCP8.5 scenario in 2050 indicated an increase in temperature during the summer and autumn in which the maximum increase in temperature was 2.79°C in the autumn. Also this scenario shows decrease in temperature during spring and winter and increase in wind speed during all periods. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario it is projected that temperature and wind speed during the summer will decrease while in the other periods the projections are reversed. The changes in PBLH in both scenarios has same behavior as temperature changes. According to the RCP4.5 scenario PM2.5 concentration will increase in summer and spring periods because of considerable decline in wind speed while in autumn and winter periods it will be reduced. On the contrary RCP8.5 scenario predicted decrease in concentration of PM2.5 during all periods. Based on both scenarios the increase of PM emissions are the main reason for increase in dry deposition. However the predicted variations are not too significant. Ultimately, it is proved that climate changes especially changes in wind speed and temperature is dominating factor in future concentration of PM2.5.
  9. Keywords:
  10. Climate Change ; Particulate Matter Less than 2.5 mm ; Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) ; Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)Modeling ; Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) ; Pollution Concentration ; RCP Scenarios ; Air Particulate Matter ; Tehran

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