Sharif Digital Repository

Excessive energy consumption is one of the serious problems of large cities in Iran. In order to avoid unreasonable growth in energy use as well as conservation of natural resources, more attention should be paid to energy consumption patterns in metropolitan cities. Accordingly, the current study aims at analyzing energy demand and its related pollutants in the household sector in Tehran Metropolitan. The study includes a discussion of past trends and future scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in this sector. Using LEAP software and according to Iran's long-term development policies, energy demand and its greenhouse gas emissions were evaluated based on a baseline scenario within a... 

This paper designs a Scenario analysis approach to determine the joint production policy for two products under possible substitution. The Scenario analysis is designed to improve decision-making by considering possible outcomes and their implications. The traditional multi-product production models assume that there is no possible substitution between products. However, in real-world cases, there are many substitutable products where substitution may occur in the event of a product stock-out. The proposed model optimizes production quantities for two products under substitution with the aim of minimizing the total cost of the inventory system, including setup and holding costs, subject to a... 

Numerical calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for large-scale portfolios poses great challenges to financial institutions. The problem is even more daunting for large fixed-income portfolios as their underlying instruments have exposure to higher dimensions of risk factors. This article provides an efficient algorithm for calculating VaR using a historical grid-based approach with volatility updating and shows its efficiency in computational cost and accuracy. Our VaR computation algorithm is flexible and simple, while one can easily extend it to cover other nonlinear portfolios such as derivative portfolios on equities and FX securities. © 2022  

Despite a substantial potential of renewable energy sources, the current energy supply system in Iran relies almost entirely on fossil fuel resources. It has imposed significant financial burden on the country and has led to considerable GHG emissions. Moreover, the country is confronting several challenges for harnessing alternative clean energy sources and promoting rational energy policies over the recent decades. To probe the root cause of these problems, this paper first provides an overview on the previous energy planning attempts in Iran. It shows that adequate commitment to a long-term energy planning could have meaningfully prevented these serious challenges. However, the previous... 

In this study, a hybrid stochastic model (BScA model) using Bayesian approach and scenario analysis to forecast long term energy demand is developed. The main objective of this study is to design and develop a model for energy analysis in demand side and describe the energy saving and GHG reduction potential on the other. For this, total energy demand is selected as the response variable and primary energy production, population, GDP and natural gas and gasoline prices are chosen as covariates. Also, Political drivers, economic drivers, social-environmental and technological drivers are the key driving forces for scenario development. After interview and ranking the drivers, we have built... 

The unbundling of the electricity industry introduced new uncertainties and escalated the existing ones in transmission expansion planning. In this paper, a multi-stage transmission expansion methodology is presented using a multi-objective optimization framework with internal scenario analysis. Total social cost (TSC), maximum regret (robustness criterion), and maximum adjustment cost (flexibility criterion) are considered as three optimization objectives. Uncertainties are considered by defining a number of scenarios. To overcome the difficulties in solving the nonconvex and mixed integer optimization problem, the genetic-based Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA II) is used.... 

A comprehensive optimal bidding strategy model has been developed for renewable micro-grids to take part in day-ahead (energy and reserve) and real-time markets considering uncertainties. A two-stage stochastic programming method has been employed to integrate the uncertainties into the problem. Moreover, the Latin hypercube sampling method has been proposed to generate the wind speed, solar irradiance, and load realizations via Weibull, Beta, and normal probability density functions, respectively. In addition, a hybrid fast forward/backward scenario reduction technique has been applied to reduce the large number of scenarios. Furthermore, the risk of participation in the markets has been... 

This paper provides a new multi-objective (MO) framework for expansion studies of energy storage systems (ESSs) in high wind penetrated power system. The proposed approach well considers the issues originated from the wind power curtailment via introducing expected of wind curtailment cost as an objective function of the studies. All other imposed costs of installing storage units are modeled as expected of total social cost. Also, the effect of uncertainties is modeled through an internal scenario analysis. In this regard, two criteria including maximum regrets of wind curtailment cost and total social cost are considered as the other objectives of the proposed MO optimization procedure.... 

This paper provides a new multi-objective (MO) framework for expansion studies of energy storage systems (ESSs) in high wind penetrated power system. The proposed approach well considers the issues originated from the wind power curtailment via introducing expected of wind curtailment cost as an objective function of the studies. All other imposed costs of installing storage units are modeled as expected of total social cost. Also, the effect of uncertainties is modeled through an internal scenario analysis. In this regard, two criteria including maximum regrets of wind curtailment cost and total social cost are considered as the other objectives of the proposed MO optimization procedure.... 

This paper provides an overview of the power sector development in Iran for the period 1984–2014. A retrospective optimization approach is applied to assess economic and environmental benefits that would have been achieved through appropriate long-term planning. MESSAGE, a systems engineering optimization model, is used for this analysis. Two alternative scenarios are defined to explore the impact of supply- and demand-side strategies on the power generation mix, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. The focus on the past choice of energy scenarios provides some insights for future scenario design. The results of the cost-optimal scenarios with international fuel prices are compared with the...