Sharif Digital Repository

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained... 

Background: Early prediction of symptoms and mortality risks for COVID-19 patients would improve healthcare outcomes, allow for the appropriate distribution of healthcare resources, reduce healthcare costs, aid in vaccine prioritization and self-isolation strategies, and thus reduce the prevalence of the disease. Such publicly accessible prediction models are lacking, however. Methods: Based on a comprehensive evaluation of existing machine learning (ML) methods, we created two models based solely on the age, gender, and medical histories of 23,749 hospital-confirmed COVID-19 patients from February to September 2020: a symptom prediction model (SPM) and a mortality prediction model (MPM).... 

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate socioeconomic factors related to COVID-19 mortality rates in New York City (NYC) to understand the connections between socioeconomic variables, including race and income and the disease. Design/methodology/approach: Using multivariable negative binomial regression, the association between health and mortality disparities related to COVID-19 and socioeconomic conditions is evaluated. The authors obtained ZIP code-level data from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and the US Census Bureau. Findings: This study concludes that the mortality rate rises in areas with a higher proportion of Hispanic and Black residents, whereas areas... 

A probabilistic method is proposed in this study to predict the spreading profile of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United State (US) via time-variant reliability analysis. To this end, an extended susceptible-exposed-infected-vaccinated-recovered (SEIVR) epidemic model is first established deterministically, considering the quarantine and vaccination effects, and then applied to the available COVID-19 data from US. Afterwards, the prediction results are described as a time-series of the number of people infected, recovered, and dead. Upon introducing the extended SEIVR model into a limit-state function and defining the model parameters including transmission, recovery, and... 

In this study, PM10, PM2.5, and PM1 concentrations were measured from April through September 2010. These measurements were made every six days and on days with dust events using a Grimm Model 1.177 aerosol spectrometer. Meteorological data were also collected. Overall mean values of 319.6 ± 407.07, 69.5 ± 83.2, and 37.02 ± 34.9 μg/m3 were obtained for PM10, PM2.5, and PM1, respectively, with corresponding maximum values of 5337.6, 910.9, and 495 μg/m3. The presence of the westerly prevailing wind implied that Iraq is the major source of dust events in this area. A total of 72 dust days and 711 dust hours occurred in the study area. The dust events occurred primarily during July. The longest... 

Background: Worldwide, both the incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer are increasing. Evaluation of pancreatic cancer burden and its global, regional, and national patterns is crucial to policy making and better resource allocation for controlling pancreatic cancer risk factors, developing early detection methods, and providing faster and more effective treatments. Methods: Vital registration, vital registration sample, and cancer registry data were used to generate mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer:... 

Background: Transport-related injuries (TIs) are a substantial public health concern for all regions of the world. The present study quantified the burden of TIs and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) in 2017 by sex and age. Methods: TIs and deaths were estimated by age, sex, country, and year using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) and DisMod-MR 2.1. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which quantify the total burden of years lost due to premature death or disability, were also estimated per 100 000 population. All estimates were reported along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: In 2017, there were 5.5 million (UI 4.9-6.2)... 

The main goal of this study is to investigate the effects of plaque structure on its stress distribution. Rupture of plaque causes cerebrovascular diseases which lead to high mortality rates all over the world. Computers are powerful tools to understand the mechanism of plaque rupture. In this study, 3D fluid structure interaction simulation is constructed in ABAQUS 6.13 to clarify the relation between stress distribution of plaque and its structure. A model of common carotid artery with distributed stenosis was chosen for the simulation. To investigate the effects of plaque structure on stress distribution, thickness of fibrous cap and lipid core size were varied in the stenosis.... 

Several studies have investigated road traffic deaths, but few have compared by road user type. Iran, with an estimated 44 road traffic deaths per 100,000 population in 2002 had higher road traffic deaths than any other country for which reliable estimates can be made. So, the present study was conducted on road death data and identified fatal accident distribution by age, gender and head injury as well as the influences of age and gender on deaths at accident scenes for all road user groups. Data used in this study are on fatal road accidents recorded by forensic medicine experts of the Khorasan Razavi province in Mashhad, the capital of the province, the second largest city and the largest... 

COVID-19, as the most significant epidemic of the century, infected 467 million people and took the lives of more than 6 million individuals as of March 19, 2022. Due to the rapid transmission of the disease and the lack of definitive treatment, countries have employed non-pharmaceutical interventions. This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of the smart travel ban policy, which has been implemented for non-commercial vehicles in the intercity highways of Iran since November 21, 2020. The other goal was to suggest efficient COVID-19 forecasting tools and to examine the association of intercity travel patterns and COVID-19 trends in Iran. To this end, weekly confirmed cases and... 

Consumption of fossil fuels in residential, industrial, and transportation sectors has a significant contribution to air pollution and high attributable premature deaths. To target specific strategies for reducing health effects, the anthropogenic sources and their contributions should be identified. This article provides an integrated modeling approach to evaluate the sector-specific contributions of different PM2.5 sources on air pollution and relevant health impacts. The dispersion of emissions from different sources is modeled by the American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD), and the health impacts are estimated by the Environmental... 

Spreading Covid19 has significantly impacted humans' affairs worldwide, either economically or in a sanitary manner. Besides social distance and hospitalization, making and introducing different vaccines help us ameliorate infection and mortality rates. In this research, we use a nonlinear dynamic model for Covid19, with eight states named susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, hospitalized, recovered, deceased, and insusceptible populations. Also, we use social distancing, hospitalization, and vaccination rate as three control inputs. This research aims to stop the Covid-19 from spreading worldwide and minimize exposed, infected and deceased populations using model predictive control.... 

Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of... 

Background: Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods: The primary... 

Background: Data about the global, regional, and country-specific variations in the levels and trends of colorectal cancer are required to understand the impact of this disease and the trends in its burden to help policy makers allocate resources. Here we provide a status report on the incidence, mortality, and disability caused by colorectal cancer in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017. Methods: Vital registration, sample vital registration, verbal autopsy, and cancer registry data were used to generate incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates of colorectal cancer at the global, regional, and national levels. We also determined the association... 

Background: Stomach cancer is a major health problem in many countries. Understanding the current burden of stomach cancer and the differential trends across various locations is essential for formulating effective preventive strategies. We report on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to stomach cancer in 195 countries and territories from 21 regions between 1990 and 2017. Methods: Estimates from GBD 2017 were used to analyse the incidence, mortality, and DALYs due to stomach cancer at the global, regional, and national levels. The rates were standardised to the GBD world population and reported per 100 000 population as age-standardised incidence rates,... 

Background Oesophageal cancer is a common and often fatal cancer that has two main histological subtypes: oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer. We report the latest estimates of these statistics for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD). Methods We used data...